quinta-feira, 3 de janeiro de 2008

Primárias nos USA começam em Iowa

Doug Mills/ The New York Times
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton former president Bill Clinton
greeted supporters in Des Moines, Iowa.

Um pequeno guia do New York Times antes de conhecer os resultados no Estado de Iowa. figuram as últimas pesquisas, os candidatos e um pequeno resumo sobre o numero de delegados que serão eleitos nesta primeira eleição.

Iowa’s Caucuses


Polls show a very tight race, with Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama running neck and neck. Mrs. Clinton leads her opponents in most other early primary states, often by wide margins, and that makes a victory in Iowa crucial for both Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards. Mr. Obama has a strong ground organization in Iowa, while Mr. Edwards has campaigned extensively in the state, hoping to repeat history. He ran a come-from-behind campaign in 2004, when a strong showing in the Iowa caucuses propelled him to national prominence.


Mitt Romney enjoyed an early lead in the polls but has recently been surpassed by Mike Huckabee. Rudolph W. Giuliani, the G.O.P. front-runner in most national polls, is running third here. John McCain is in single digits in most Iowa polls; he skipped the Iowa caucuses altogether in 2000, saying he did not have the resources to compete both there and in New Hampshire.

Recent Polling


Clinton 30%
Obama 28%
Edwards 26%
Richardson 7%
Biden 3%
No answer 3%
Dodd 1%
Kucinich 1%


Huckabee 33%
Romney 25%
Giuliani 11%
McCain 9%
Thompson 9%
Paul 6%
Tancredo 3%
No answer 2%
Hunter 1%

Conducted between December 14, 2007 and December 18, 2007 by Opinion Research Corporation for CNN with 543 likely Democratic caucus voters and a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Details of the Nominating Process


January 3, 2008 Caucus (Open) 57 delegates at stake

The process has four steps: the precinct caucuses, the county conventions, the district conventions and the state convention. At the precinct caucuses on Jan. 3, delegates are elected to the county conventions on March 15. Delegates to the county conventions select delegates to the district conventions on April 26 and to the state convention on June 14. Participants in the state convention June 14 select 16 pledged delegates to the national convention. An additional 12 unpledged delegates are also selected from party leaders. The delegates to the state convention elect Iowa’s at-large delegates to the national convention.


January 3, 2008 Caucus (Semi-closed) 40 delegates at stake

At the party caucuses on Jan. 3, a straw vote is taken, and delegates to the county convention are selected. The results are not binding on elected delegates, but the delegates usually feel obligated to follow the wishes of caucus-goers. At county conventions on March 1, delegates are chosen to both the Congressional district conventions and the state convention, and they may or may not be chosen based on their presidential preferences. At the April 26 Congressional district conventions, delegates previously chosen to attend the state convention are told which presidential candidate is preferred by the district delegates. At state convention district caucuses June 13-15, delegates to the national convention, three from each of the state’s five Congressional districts, are allocated proportionally to presidential candidates. At the state convention on June 14, the remaining 25 delegates are selected. Of these, 22 are allocated proportionally to presidential candidates, and 3 unpledged delegates are selected from among party leaders.

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