VOCÊ ACREDITA EM PESQUISA ?

As pesquisas tiraram 10 pontos
percentuais da Hillary

Paulo Henrique Amorim

Máximas e Mínimas 852

. Uma semana atrás, as pesquisas eleitorais mostravam que Hillary Clinton ganharia a eleição primária do estado de New Hampshire com uma vantagem de dois dígitos.

. Na véspera da eleição, as pesquisas eleitorais mostravam uma reviravolta: Barack Obama ganharia com uma vantagem de dois ditos, por causa da surpreendente vitória em Iowa.

. As pesquisas eleitorais foram as grandes derrotadas – para quem acredita nelas – nas primárias do Partido Democrata (clique aqui para ler “Você acredita nas pesquisa ?”)

. Em Iowa – quando as pesquisas escolheram Hilllary – e agora, em New Hampshire, onde a margem foi apertada.

. A vitória de McCain, no lado Republicano, era mais esperada, porém, também ele tinha sido menosprezado pelas pesquisas e os “colunistas” da imprensa americana.

. A votação de Hillary se deve em boa parte – segundo a cobertura da CNN, da Fox News e da BBC, a que assisti – à fidelidade do eleitorado feminino, ao eleitorado trabalhador e sindical (que sempre gostou de Bill Clinton) e a Bill Clinton.

. E à fidelidade do eleitor mais pobre.

. Mais de 50% dos eleitores democratas com renda anual inferior a US$ 50 mil votaram em Hillary.

. Bill Clinton, nos últimos dias, pôs a mão na massa e partiu para o ataque a Obama, com o argumento de que Obama não tinha sido suficientemente questionado – pela imprensa e pelos eleitores.

. Obama se vangloria de ter votado contra a Guerra do Iraque. Hillary votou a favor.

. Mas, Bill Clinton tentou provar que, depois de votar contra a Guerra do Iraque, Obama aprovou todas as medidas que se tornaram necessárias para que os Estados Unidos realizassem uma campanha eficaz no Iraque – logo, dali em diante Obama e Hillary tinham votado da mesma maneira.

. Aí, disse Bill Clinton, o desempenho de Obama é “ um conto da carochinha”.

. Os eleitores que formam a base mais sólida do Partido Democrata adoram Bill Clinton.

. Obama está à esquerda dos Clinton.

. E isso, os Clinton e os Republicanos vão combater, daqui para frente.

. Pode dar Clinton, Hillary, McCain, Huckabee ou Romney.

. E as pesquisas, nos Estados Unidos, continuarão a ser recebidas como hoje: com ceticismo.

. Acredita em pesquisa quem quer – ou quem faz com que os outros acreditem.

Em tempo: até pesquisa de boca-de-urna errou: segundo a Fox, 39% dos eleitores Democratas que tinham acabado de votar escolheram Obama; e 34%, Hillary.

Em tempo 2: é bom lembrar que, no Brasil, três anos antes da eleição, o Datafolha já elegeu o presidente eleito José Serra.

Em tempo 3: agora de manhã, a CNN tirou a média das pesquisas eleitorais em New Hampshire. Em média, as pesquisas eleitorais tiraram 10 pontos percentuais de Hillary Clinton. Acredita quem quiser.

A Campaign Retools to Seek Second Clinton Comeback

Doug Mills/The New York Times
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on Friday in Nashua, N.H.
After a loss in Iowa, her campaign is fine-tuning its approach.

By PATRICK HEALY and JOHN M. BRODER

The New York Times

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton have been in career-threatening scrapes before, but never quite like the one they face in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, when nothing less than their would-be dynasty will be on the line.

Doug Mills/The New York Times
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her daughter, Chelsea, right,
at a news conference on Friday in Manchester, N.H.

In trying to battle back from her loss in the Iowa caucuses to Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, Mrs. Clinton is recalibrating her message in hopes of producing Comeback Kid: The Sequel — achieving the reversal of fortune her husband pulled off with his second-place finish here in the Democratic nomination contest in 1992.

Mrs. Clinton, after arriving here at 4 a.m. Friday, used a rally in Nashua to begin focusing on young voters and independents, two groups that flocked to the Obama banner in Iowa. She said she wanted to appeal to young people, and surrounded herself with them at the rally, in contrast to her caucus night party where older, familiar faces from the Clinton administration and her political team stood out.

Yet many of the challenges and questions she faced in Iowa — like Clinton fatigue and the generational showdown with Mr. Obama — remained part of her baggage as she flew east. While she is ahead in public polls here, she faces a popularity contest against Mr. Obama. There were empty seats, for instance, at a rally Mr. Clinton held with students at the University of New Hampshire on Friday afternoon.

And her campaign, while trying to fine-tune its strategy, is also engaging in some finger-pointing. Some advisers say that the campaign miscalculated in having Mr. Clinton play such a public role, that Mrs. Clinton could not effectively position herself as a change agent, the profile du jour for Democrats, so long as he stood as a reminder that her presidency would be much like his. Other advisers say that Mr. Obama now owns the “change” mantra and that Mrs. Clinton needs a Plan B.

“Hillary says she’ll change things, but then voters see Bill and hear them talk about the 1990s, and it’s clear that the Clintons are not offering change but rather Clinton Part 2,” said one veteran adviser to both Clintons. “That won’t win.”

Beating a sunny, charismatic opponent like Mr. Obama — especially given his embrace by such a cross-section of Iowa voters — is not part of the Clinton experience. When facing political crises, the couple’s modus operandi has been to attack their attackers and question their motives. But Mr. Obama is not Kenneth W. Starr, Newt Gingrich or Paula Jones; a presidential campaign is not a Washington scandal; and the Clinton strategy of attacking Mr. Obama’s readiness for the presidency did not work in Iowa.

Mrs. Clinton, of New York, suggested she would now be more direct in pointing out contrasts between her experience and policy ideas and Mr. Obama’s, both on the campaign trail and in their televised debate Saturday night.

“I am making the case for myself, but I think one of the ways I make that is by drawing contrasts,” Mrs. Clinton told reporters in Nashua.

But on Friday, she stuck to a theme she has been using against Mr. Obama for months, that her health care plan would mandate that all Americans get coverage while his would not.

She is also counting on her base of support and endorsements here, much deeper than in Iowa, to counter Mr. Obama’s appeal to young people and independents.

Fifty percent of voters who were 44 and younger supported Mr. Obama in Iowa, compared with 16 percent for Mrs. Clinton, according to a poll of Democrats entering caucus sites Thursday. Over all, 52 percent of voters said they backed the candidate who would bring needed change, and Mr. Obama won 51 percent of their support.

“You have to learn from what happened in Iowa,” said Howard Wolfson, Mrs. Clinton’s communications director. “But the message in New Hampshire has been working. It’s who she is as a person, her experience making change, the importance of picking a president that is ready. That won’t change.”

Speaking to reporters in Nashua, Mrs. Clinton played down her loss in Iowa and asserted that it was not a referendum on the strength of her candidacy.

“I was never a front-runner of any significance in Iowa — I knew it was always going to be hard for me,” Mrs. Clinton said. “Both of my two leading opponents, one had been there for years; one is from a neighboring state. So I feel that we executed what we thought was the limit of what we could produce in Iowa under the circumstances.”

Clinton advisers said Friday that they would not mount a negative advertising campaign against Mr. Obama in New Hampshire, saying the primary was too soon for such an onslaught to have any effect. And they said there were no plans to bring in new senior advisers to help right her campaign.

Yet no sooner had Mrs. Clinton finished her concession speech in Iowa on Thursday than second-guessing set in among her supporters.

One longtime adviser complained that the campaign’s senior strategist, Mark Penn, realized too late that “change” was a much more powerful message than “experience.” Another adviser said Mr. Penn and Mr. Clinton were consumed with polling data for so long, they did not fully grasp the personality deficit that Mrs. Clinton had with voters.

Advisers said that both Clintons had miscalculated the endurance and depth of what they called “the Obama phenomenon.” They both believed that, in the final months of 2007, more voters would question whether Mr. Obama was ready to be president and more reporters would pick apart his political record and personal character. Now anger inside the campaign at the news media has hardened; Mr. Clinton, in particular, believes reporters will be complicit if Mr. Obama becomes the nominee and loses to a Republican.

Doug Mills/The New York Times
Former President Bill Clinton greeting supporters
on Friday in Nashua, N.H. His role has been debated within the campaign.

Mr. Clinton’s role in the campaign has also become fodder for debate in her camp. Some advisers laud him as a vote-getter and crowd-builder bar none, and Mrs. Clinton’s best character witness. But others increasingly look at him with a jaundiced eye, saying that some of his off-message remarks have proved a distraction, and that his looming presence has undercut her promises to make a break with the politics of the past.

Mr. Clinton seemed tired, almost downbeat as he worked his way through two 45-minute speeches in New Hampshire on Friday. He focused on Mrs. Clinton’s record of service and her qualifications for the presidency.

He never mentioned Mr. Obama’s name, but he seemed to draw a contrast between what he called her 36 years of public service and Mr. Obama’s relatively limited depth of experience, the very themes that did not succeed for the Clintons in Iowa.

Denny Gallaudet, an investment manager and undecided Democratic voter from Freedom, N.H., who attended a rally in Rochester on Friday with Mr. Clinton, said he sensed “a little Clinton fatigue” among voters. Mr. Gallaudet, who supported Mr. Clinton in 1992 and 1996, said he was skeptical that Democrats were still in the thrall of the former president.

“I got really mad at him about the Monica thing,” he said. “It really creamed the party.”

While Mr. Clinton hits the campaign trail for the next few days, Mrs. Clinton plans to spend the bulk of Saturday preparing for the debate, a crucial showdown with Mr. Obama in the eyes of Clinton advisers. Her allies, including Gen. Wesley K. Clark and former Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, are also fanning out in New Hampshire.

Campaign officials held a conference call with reporters on Friday, where leaders of her efforts in some of the next states to vote — Nevada, South Carolina, California — all predicted that she would win the nominating contests there.

Patrick Healy reported from Manchester, and John M. Broder from Durham. Marjorie Connelly contributed reporting from Des Moines.

Os ventos de Iowa

Que o editorial do jornal francês Le Monde denomine uma "ruptura americana", os resultados das primárias no Estado de Iowa, pode até ser um exagero. Mas, indiscutivelmente, o recado é altamente significativo.

Os eleitores de Iowa elegem poucos delegados para as convenções dos Democratas e dos Republicanos, que serão as que decidem em definitivo qual será o nome ungido candidato oficial dos respectivos partidos. A verdadeira tendência começará a aparecer após a "super terça", no mês de fevereiro, em que vários Estados elegem simultaneamente seus delegados, depois portanto da escolha do Estado de New Hampshire a semana próxima.

Também é verdade que Bill Clinton, por exemplo, perdeu em Iowa, nas primárias que acabaram escolhendo-o candidato pelo partido Democrata à Casa-Branca. O mesmo pode se repetir com Hillary Clinton agora.

Nada disso porém, apaga as lições do inicio deste complexo processo de escolha. Os eleitores de ambos partidos privilegiaram candidatos pouco representativos do establishment político, defensores de posições de maior mudança, de posturas por vezes polêmicas e até com menor experiência que as principais figuras de ambos os lados.

Paradoxalmente, Hillary Clinton acabou penalizada pela sua postura mais de centro, moderada e consensual, sendo que elas eram aparentemente necessárias para reduzir a rejeição ao fato de ser mulher, progressista e com vida familiar digamos, conturbada.

Pode ser que os eleitores de Iowa estejam expressando um sentimento nacional de mudanças após o desastrado governo Bush, sua política belicista e guerreira no Iraque e os impasses econômicos, conseqüência da crise das hipotecas e também do aprofundamento da desigualdade social visível na questão da saúde, da renda e do emprego, por exemplo.

Ainda é cedo para saber se o fenômeno é local ou passageiro, ou se traduz uma tendência mais profunda. O fato do beneficiado no campo Democrata ser um jovem senador negro, de origem imigrante e isto em um Estado de maioria branca e perfil conservador parece expressar algo mais que um humor passageiro.

Barack Obama tem dinheiro para sustentar a campanha e recebeu um apoio ao seu discurso de mudança. Resta saber se Hillary saberá captar os novos ventos de Iowa para recuperar o espaço perdido.

New Hampshire nós dará mais uma dica de para onde vão os Estados-Unidos. Para o resto do mundo isto tem, seguramente, uma certa importância.

Luis Favre

Call for Change Shakes Up the Democratic Field

By JEFF ZELENY

Published: January 4, 2008 The NEW YORK TIMES

DES MOINES — They rolled the dice.

Whether it was because they were eager to leave behind the bitter divides of the last two decades or because they wanted to send a message that a small white state could transcend the issue of race, Iowa voters handed Senator Barack Obama a victory here Thursday and supported his improbable candidacy in defiance of those who warned he was too inexperienced in world affairs.

Instead, what seemed to drive them was the idea that Mr. Obama would present a new face for America in the world, with a coalition of Democrats and independents dispelling skepticism and flooding caucuses in all corners of the state to support a man who came to Washington only three years ago.

“We are one people,” Mr. Obama said. “And our time for change has come.”

It was only a year ago that Mr. Obama, 46, a first-term senator from Illinois, formally decided to seek the Democratic nomination, which even some of his closest advisers feared could diminish his long-term potential. As he learned to become a presidential candidate on the fly, seasoned political hands worked to build an organization here unlike any other, which ultimately helped to nearly double the turnout from the caucuses four years ago.

Mr. Obama praised Iowa voters for casting away a litany of concerns that his rivals had aired about his candidacy, like too little experience and questions of electability. But he conceded that his victory was only a beginning.

“This was the moment when we tore down barriers that have divided us for too long,” Mr. Obama said. “When we finally united people of all parties and ages.”

The strength of his performance — and a strong finish by former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina — shook the confidence of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign and created fresh uncertainty in the Democratic nominating contest. Even before Mr. Obama’s victory had been formally declared, the Clinton campaign announced that former President Bill Clinton would be dispatched to New Hampshire for a five-day blitz before the primary there on Tuesday. (It was Mr. Clinton who suggested that Mr. Obama’s candidacy would be a roll of the dice, a phrase that Mr. Obama turned into a mantra in recent days, often when appearing before overflowing crowds.)

“I congratulate Senator Obama and Senator Edwards,” Mrs. Clinton, of New York, said to supporters, with her husband and her daughter, Chelsea, behind her. “Together we have presented the case for change.”

With a confident smile, she added, “We’re going to get up tomorrow and keep pushing as hard as we can.”

After a yearlong campaign built upon a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign and a network of grass-roots organizers, Mr. Obama was supported Thursday evening by younger voters, voters looking for change, independents and very liberal Democrats. At the same time, he was the first choice of one-third of female voters.

In fact, the poll of Democrats as they entered the caucuses suggested that women were closely divided between Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton. Among men, Mr. Obama did better, according to the poll conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool of television networks and The Associated Press.

While Mr. Obama’s candidacy gained steadily throughout the year, he also has capitalized on an unsteady electorate craving change. One of the largest applause lines he receives continues to be when he declares that President Bush will be out of office in only a year.

“The huge difference was that we had the greatest organization ever built in this state,” said David Axelrod, the chief strategist for Mr. Obama’s campaign. “And it was built on the backs of idealistic kids who came in here not just because they believed in Obama, but they wanted to change the course of history and the world.”

The Iowa caucuses winnowed the field of Democratic presidential candidates. Senators Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut and Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware dropped out of the race after the caucuses.

“One of the charges against Iowa is that we don’t really represent the rest of the country, and here’s a chance to make a statement about the inclusiveness of Iowa,” said Jon Muller, 42, who voiced his support for Mr. Obama at Precinct 73. “I’m just ready for a change, as opposed to a Clinton or Bush.”

At his caucus site at the Plymouth Congregational Church in Des Moines, supporters of Mr. Obama spilled out of the room, as they did in locations across the state.

The results of the Iowa caucuses, with Mr. Edwards and Mrs. Clinton in a narrow fight for second place, heightened the importance of the New Hampshire primary, where a trove of independent voters were already leaning toward Mr. Obama.

Mr. Edwards promised that his candidacy would continue. With his wife, Elizabeth, standing behind him, Mr. Edwards spoke to supporters at in Des Moines.

“The one thing that’s clear from this result here tonight is that the status quo lost and change won,” Mr. Edwards said.

Even though the Clinton advisers began lowering expectations for Mrs. Clinton’s performance weeks ago, saying that she had faced hardened, negative perceptions among Iowa voters that stemmed from her partisan and secretive image as first lady, the results raised new questions about her candidacy.

Indeed, in the closing days of the race here, some of her advisers began recalling that Mrs. Clinton’s deputy campaign manager recommended in May that she skip the caucuses altogether, after internal polling found that she had high negative ratings in the state.

She decided to compete here in spite of the fact that neither she nor her husband had deep political roots in the state.

Still, Mrs. Clinton’s supporters had expected her to win.

“I expected her to be first,” said Mario Gandelsonas, 68, an architect from New York who supports Mrs. Clinton and was in Des Moines on a work project. “But this is just the beginning. I know Hillary. She’ll be first, and she’ll beat them all in New Hampshire. This will give her incentive to fight even harder.”

Julie Bosman, Ashley Parker, Jeremy Peters and Cate Doty contributed reporting.

Primárias nos USA começam em Iowa

Doug Mills/ The New York Times
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton former president Bill Clinton
greeted supporters in Des Moines, Iowa.

Um pequeno guia do New York Times antes de conhecer os resultados no Estado de Iowa. figuram as últimas pesquisas, os candidatos e um pequeno resumo sobre o numero de delegados que serão eleitos nesta primeira eleição.

Iowa’s Caucuses

Democrats

Polls show a very tight race, with Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama running neck and neck. Mrs. Clinton leads her opponents in most other early primary states, often by wide margins, and that makes a victory in Iowa crucial for both Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards. Mr. Obama has a strong ground organization in Iowa, while Mr. Edwards has campaigned extensively in the state, hoping to repeat history. He ran a come-from-behind campaign in 2004, when a strong showing in the Iowa caucuses propelled him to national prominence.

Republicans

Mitt Romney enjoyed an early lead in the polls but has recently been surpassed by Mike Huckabee. Rudolph W. Giuliani, the G.O.P. front-runner in most national polls, is running third here. John McCain is in single digits in most Iowa polls; he skipped the Iowa caucuses altogether in 2000, saying he did not have the resources to compete both there and in New Hampshire.

Recent Polling

Democrats

Clinton	30%
Obama	28%
Edwards	26%
Richardson	7%
Biden	3%
No answer	3%
Dodd	1%
Kucinich	1%

Republicans

Huckabee	33%
Romney	25%
Giuliani	11%
McCain	9%
Thompson	9%
Paul	6%
Tancredo	3%
No answer	2%
Hunter	1%

Conducted between December 14, 2007 and December 18, 2007 by Opinion Research Corporation for CNN with 543 likely Democratic caucus voters and a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Details of the Nominating Process

Democrats

January 3, 2008 Caucus (Open) 57 delegates at stake

The process has four steps: the precinct caucuses, the county conventions, the district conventions and the state convention. At the precinct caucuses on Jan. 3, delegates are elected to the county conventions on March 15. Delegates to the county conventions select delegates to the district conventions on April 26 and to the state convention on June 14. Participants in the state convention June 14 select 16 pledged delegates to the national convention. An additional 12 unpledged delegates are also selected from party leaders. The delegates to the state convention elect Iowa’s at-large delegates to the national convention.

Republicans

January 3, 2008 Caucus (Semi-closed) 40 delegates at stake

At the party caucuses on Jan. 3, a straw vote is taken, and delegates to the county convention are selected. The results are not binding on elected delegates, but the delegates usually feel obligated to follow the wishes of caucus-goers. At county conventions on March 1, delegates are chosen to both the Congressional district conventions and the state convention, and they may or may not be chosen based on their presidential preferences. At the April 26 Congressional district conventions, delegates previously chosen to attend the state convention are told which presidential candidate is preferred by the district delegates. At state convention district caucuses June 13-15, delegates to the national convention, three from each of the state’s five Congressional districts, are allocated proportionally to presidential candidates. At the state convention on June 14, the remaining 25 delegates are selected. Of these, 22 are allocated proportionally to presidential candidates, and 3 unpledged delegates are selected from among party leaders.

Candidatos correm atrás do eleitor em Iowa

Às vésperas das primárias, republicanos e democratas invadem o dia-a-dia da população em busca de votos

José Meirelles Passos

O Globo

DES MOINES, Iowa. É difícil escapar deles. Ou, pelo menos, não sentir a sua presença. Vaise ao supermercado e lá está o republicano Fred Thompson, ex-senador e ator, improvisando um comício para os clientes.

Vira-se uma esquina e o alvoroço que se nota em frente a uma barbearia nada tem a ver com algum incidente: são curiosos ouvindo Mike Huckabee, outro republicano, que dá entrevistas à imprensa e se dirige aos eventuais eleitores, enquanto recebe um corte de cabelo e é barbeado.

Alguém vai devolver um livro na biblioteca pública e lá encontra Hillary Clinton falando a um grupo de senhoras.

Veteranos de guerra jogam cartas e dominó num clube quando, de repente, surge John McCain para pedir votos.

Barack Obama não perde a chance de entrar numa lanchonete na hora do almoço para conversar com os freqüentadores.

Tem sido assim para a população de Iowa desde junho passado. Todos os 15 précandidatos presidenciais se tornaram freqüentadores assíduos do estado, visitando não só a capital, Des Moines — com seus 190 mil moradores — mas também dezenas de vilarejos interioranos como Dike, que tem apenas 944 residentes. Grundy Center, comunidade rural com 2.500 habitantes, detém o título de local que mais eventos eleitorais per capita realizou até aqui: nada menos do que 13 c o m í c i o s .

William McNarney também é dono de um recorde, apesar de sua tenra idade. Aos sete meses, ele se tornou o bebê mais paparicado pelos candidatos de ambos os partidos em suas andanças por Des Moines: seus pais já o fotografaram nos braços de oito deles.

Juntos, candidatos republicanos e democratas já passaram o equivalente a 500 dias fazendo campanha nesse pequeno estado no Meio-Oeste americano onde, amanhã, será realizada a primeira prévia eleitoral da corrida à Casa Branca deste ano. Todos os 99 condados de Iowa foram visitados por eles.

Propaganda eleitoral assume caráter mais agressivo Cada candidato também conta com um exército particular de ajudantes. Os republicanos têm 126 funcionários pagos fazendo propaganda no estado. Os democratas têm muito mais: 573. Isso sem levar em conta os voluntários.

Só Hillary e Barack contam com mais de mil deles. E esse pessoal trabalha em ritmo de mutirão, com a maioria vivendo temporariamente em residências de simpatizantes do partido ou de algum candidato em particular.

Nos últimos dias os moradores de Iowa também vêm sendo bombardeados por uma intensa e persistente avalanche de anúncios. Sem contar as rajadas de telefonemas de alguém pedindo votos para o seu preferido. A estimativa dos especialistas no assunto é de que pouco mais de um milhão de chamadas telefônicas sejam feitas entre hoje e amanhã.

Por trás delas estão pessoas escolhidas a dedo, por terem muitos amigos ou conhecidos em suas respectivas comunidades: — Como todo mundo hoje tem telefone que exibe a identificação de quem está chamando, ninguém nesta época de eleição atende, a menos que conheça a pessoa que está ligando — disse Ned Chiodo, gerente de um campo de golfe em Des Moines.

Liga-se o rádio para ouvir uma música e nos intervalos entre uma e outra entra a voz de um dos candidatos afirmando ser a pessoa indicada para dirigir o país. Filmes e shows de TV também são entremeados por clipes. No início eles procuravam apresentar os postulantes e destacar seus talentos. No entanto, os novos filmes surgidos nos últimos dias têm contido ataques pessoais e diretos a rivais nessa disputa.

O velho método de comprar o voto através de presentes e agrados — como acontece no Brasil, com a farta distribuição de camisetas nas cidades e de botinas no agreste — também é adotado nos EUA. Barack Obama, por exemplo, está pagando babás para os casais que não têm com quem deixar as crianças para irem votar.

Hillary montou uma brigada de removedores de neve no gelado estado de Iowa, onde tem feito uma média de 13 graus negativos. Centenas de pás vêm sendo distribuídas pelo seu comitê eleitoral a correligionários, para que retirem a neve acumulada, em especial na porta das casas de pessoas mais velhas, para que elas também se sintam animadas a irem votar.

Clinton Makes Closing Argument to Women

Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y. introduces her daughter Chelsea Clinton, and mother Dorothy Rodham during a "Moms and Daughters Making History with Hillary" campaign event in Manchester, N.H., Saturday, Dec. 22, 2007. (AP Photo/Jim Cole) (Jim Cole - AP)

By PHILIP ELLIOTT The Associated Press
The Washington Post

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton on Saturday made her closing argument to female voters in a message that could be reduced to three words.

You. Go. Girl.

Clinton, standing in a lobby of a YWCA, told undecided mothers and their daughters that her agenda for families and children is the most aggressive to help them. She touted her family care and child care tax credits designed to lessen the burden on working women.

"We can do a better job in supporting families than we do right now," Clinton said. "We give a lot of lip service to family values, but we've never really valued families in a way that we can."

Clinton, on the last of a two-day trip to this early voting state, tailored her message and appearances to female voters with whom she enjoys a sizable lead in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. She bests rival Barack Obama, 42 percent to 25 percent among women in the latest CNN-WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire. She leads overall in that poll, 38 percent to 26 percent.

A separate New Hampshire poll, released Friday from USA Today and Gallup, showed Clinton and Obama tied at 32 percent each of Democrats overall. Her outreach to women underscores the tightness of the race in this first-in-the-nation presidential primary state and the support she is trying to cement in case she falters in Iowa's three-way race.

Iowa's presidential caucuses are Jan. 3, followed by New Hampshire's primary on Jan. 8.

One voter, a self-described feminist, asked Clinton later in Keene if she thought it was acceptable to support her based solely on her gender.

"Of course I do," Clinton said with laughter. "I'm not asking you to vote for me because I'm a woman. ... But the fact that I am a woman gives this election extra significance."

With daughter Chelsea and mother Dorothy Rodham in tow, Clinton's four-event schedule highlighted what could be a history-making nomination. As her campaign released a list of 3,500 female supporters, she said there are too many challenges facing working mothers.

"We put so many burdens on families trying to do the right thing, trying to take care of their families," Clinton said.

She cited her time as a young mother in Little Rock, Ark.

"When I was a young lawyer and also a mom, I learned how difficult it was for a lot of the other women who worked in the law firm _ the secretaries, the paralegals. At 3 o'clock every day, they'd all be on the phone, whispering to make sure their children were there safely. ... It was just such a time of tension and concern to make sure they got home."

Clinton highlighted her proposals to help working women with young children or who _ like Clinton _ take care of their parents.

"She's going to hit the ground running," said Barbara Marzelli, a mother whose son benefited from a children's health program Clinton supported. "She has the experience, the strength and the commitment _ and above all, a heart _ to lead the country."

Throughout the day, Clinton's supporters invoked history.

"It's been 220 years and we do not have a woman as a leader of this country," state Sen. Molly Kelly said during a mostly women's meeting in Keene. "My mother passed away this past year. She was 80. I think about that. Only seven years before she was born did women have the right to vote and we take that for granted."

The history wasn't avoided by Clinton.

"As the first mom who would ever be president, I want to set an example that, you know, being a mom and being a daughter and taking care of your family is one of the most important obligations any of us have. You shouldn't have these really false choices presented to people: We can either be good workers or you can be a parent. You can be both," Clinton said in Keene.

Clinton also turned back to her book, "It Takes a Village." She said families have to work together to strengthen their relationships.

"It sounds incredibly old-fashioned, but having a meal together really makes a difference. It stabilizes your children during the day. It gives them a chance to interact with the family," she said. "That kind of investment is every parent would like to be able to do, but so many parents can't."

Bill: Hillary Win In Iowa Would Be 'A Miracle'

The Huffington post

Hits Obama's Experience, Voting For Him Is 'Rolling The Dice' ...

Looked "Tense And Almost Pissed Off That Obama Is Running"

Bill Clinton ... Well, He Just Puts Everything On The Table. Read It.

14 Dec 2007

In a hard-changing interview with Charlie Rose tonight, Bill Clinton said Americans who are prepared to choose someone with less experience, are prepared to "roll the dice" about the future of America. "It's less predictable, isn't it? When is the last time we elected a president based on one year of service before he's running?"

"What do you want to do -- whether you think it matters that, I mean, in theory, no experience matters," Clinton said. "In theory, we could find someone who is a gifted television commentators and let them run. They'd have only one year less experience in national politics..."

And Clinton said the notion that experience led the politicians to sanction the Iraq War is "absurd."

"That's like saying that because 100% of the malpractice cases are committed by doctors, the next time I need surgery, I'll get a chef or a plumber to do it."

Towards the end of the interview, Rose indicated that Clinton's staff was asking producers in his show's control room to get them to have Rose end the interview.

And Clinton said: "Somebody will parse this interview..." to take his quotes out of context. "It is stupid... I think we are fortunate in having people..I think the relevant question from me is, who will be the best president who has a proven record of making change in the lives of other people."

They may parse his body language. Toward the end of the interview, his hands began to shake and his face reddened as he discussed the political thicket his wife finds herself in.

Please read this rough transcription of Clinton's take on why his wife isn't doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire.

"Really, really interesting, that I've heard Sen. Obama a dozen times making some fairly derisive comment about Hillary...saying, you know, she had a decades old plan to be president...repeating this total canard that...totally fabricated account from an anti-Hillary book...as if it was something bad that he didn't have a decades-long president...so on their website they put reports that he had been planning to run for president...and they put this thing when he was in kindergarten that he planned to run for president..but the Obama people got the press on their side..."

Rose asked Clinton whether he was nervous about the state of the campaign.

"Well, no. Let me back up. In January, when on New Years Day, she said she was finally going to try and do this... I said I'll make you a prediction...allt he press will say you will coast to the nomination....I think you will have a difficult time getting nominated, and if you are nominated, you'll win the general election handily.....[HRC asked why]...you'll have to run in Iowa, which is the single most difficult state...but Sen. Edwards has a well-earned, huge cadre of support in Iowa because he's worked it for seven years...Sen. Obama is next door, that matters.

Rose: "You think that's the reason for the polls...""

Clinton: "On Edwards, there is no doubt...So, look I've done this before. When I lost in New Hampshire to Paul Tsongas, I lost the first 10 miles next to the Massachusetts border. I carried everything from 10 miles north up to the Canadian border. There are thousands of Illinois students in Iowa colleges...who have never caucused before...[insists he's not lowering expectations.]..he's been to 75 counties, she's been to 50..so my view of this is that I never thought she had a big lead in Iowa...the Iowa people have been really fair to her...they've listened to her and they've given her a chance, and she might win there...and it is astonishing...from the beginning of this race, she had a lead in 36 of 38 states...and not having good luck...what has really happened...what i have been frustrated about has nothing to do with her campaign...the challenges in the polls in the moments will be overcome..I can feel in Iowa, it depends on what people think the answer is...in New Hampshire...the Republicans have been attacking her in all the debates...those attacks affect independent voters...she is not in a position to answer back what the Republicans are doing in the primary...that has not been good..."

"In Iowa, nobody wants to go negative on television, so really it's a war underneath the radar screen and it has more to do with how the press interprets it than anything else...what broke her momentum there was the extraordinary attention given to her not very great answer on the driver's licenses....the press should have a common set of standards..."

"He is great, Edwards is really good..."

"It's a miracle she's got a chance to win."

Richardson, Biden, Dodd are ready to be president, Clinton says.

"Obama has got great skills. It depends on what the American people think is more important....[do they] have somebody who is very his very nature a compelling, very attractive, highly intelligent, visible symbol of transformation, or is it more ...[important] to have someone who would also symbolize change...but who has done a significant number of things to change other people's lives."

Etats-Unis : le rapport sur l'Iran conforte Barack Obama face à Hillary Clinton

i un citoyen américain constate la présence d'un clandestin, doit-il en référer aux autorités, comme le soutiennent plusieurs candidats républicains à la présidence ? Telle était la question sur laquelle devaient plancher les candidats démocrates lors de leur débat, mardi 4 décembre. Cela se passait sur une radio de Des Moines, capitale de l'Iowa, où se tiendra, le 3 janvier, les premiers "caucus" (votes après débat) lançant les primaires pour la désignation du candidat de chaque parti au scrutin présidentiel du 2 novembre 2008.

Les candidats ont vaguement marmonné : "Non." "Ah bon ?" a lancé le modérateur, Steve Inskeep. Et s'ils sont témoins d'un autre délit, doivent-ils le faire savoir (sous-entendu : l'illégalité ne serait-elle pas un délit à vos yeux ?) ?

"Votre question, Steve, est habile, mais pas la bonne, a rétorqué Hillary Clinton : 12 à 14 millions de personnes vivent parmi nous, s'occupent de nos vieux ; sans doute font-ils les lits des hôtels dans lesquels nous descendons. N'écoutez pas les démagogues qui veulent transformer chaque Américain en délateur suspicieux." Mais le modérateur est revenu à la charge : admettez-vous que la présence des clandestins fait baisser les salaires des Américains ?

Le ton était donné. Le débat entre candidats démocrates s'est tenu en début de soirée. Le matin, le président George Bush avait commenté le rapport de la direction du Renseignement national, qui assure que l'Iran a arrêté depuis 2003 son programme nucléaire militaire. Le nucléaire iranien a été évoqué à Des Moines, mais après l'immigration. Vu de l'Iowa, l'Iran paraît loin. Les préoccupations locales sont la désindustrialisation, les revenus, la santé.

M^me Clinton a été vivement attaquée par ses concurrents démocrates pour avoir, seule parmi eux, voté au Sénat la loi désignant les Gardiens de la révolution iranienne comme une "organisation terroriste". Une loi désormais perçue par l'opinion démocrate comme ayant visé à donner au président Bush un autre motif que le nucléaire pour justifier une guerre contre le régime des mollahs.

La sénatrice de New York a défendu son vote, précisant que "personne, parmi nous, n'a soutenu de se précipiter dans la guerre". Elle a eu du mal à convaincre, surtout face au sénateur de l'Illinois Barack Obama.

Ce dernier apparaît comme le principal vainqueur politique du rapport du Renseignement américain. Seul, il n'avait cessé de marteler que lui "négociera" avec l'Iran et "rencontrera le président Ahmadinejad". Or ce rapport prône une stratégie alliant pressions diplomatiques et négociations.

REUTERS/JASON REED Barack Obama à l'université de l'Iowa, le 5 décembre 2007.

Le directeur à la sécurité nationale de M^me Clinton, Lee Feinstein, a cependant répété, mercredi, que "ni les rodomontades musclées ni les rendez-vous sans préalable avec Ahmadinejad ne mettront fin aux ambitions nucléaires iraniennes".

Un coup pour M. Bush, un autre pour M. Obama : la stratégie de M^me Clinton est-elle payante ? Le principal problème de l'ex-première dame des Etats-Unis est qu'en menant une campagne très centriste pour se positionner comme la seule ayant l'envergure d'un chef d'Etat et la plus attentive aux attentes de l'électorat du camp adverse, elle concentre toutes les critiques. Elle subit les plus vives attaques de ses adversaires démocrates sur ses positions "droitières". Et elle ne se dépêtre pas de l'image "gauchiste" que les républicains lui ont forgée. Sites et blogs conservateurs fleurissent : "Stop Hillary", "Sorcière", "Staline en jupon"...

Un sondage du Des Moines Register, publié lundi, a confirmé l'avance (3 points) que posséderait sur elle Barack Obama dans l'Iowa. "On va commencer à s'amuser", avait lancé la veille M^me Clinton. De manière coordonnée, ses partisans mettaient alors en cause la probité et surtout la psychologie personnelle de M. Obama. "Ils paniquent", a rétorqué ce dernier.

D'autres, sans paniquer, se démènent. Le New York Times a publié mardi une enquête sur la manière dont les lobbies des entreprises de l'énergie, du transport, de la pharmacie ou de l'assurance, pronostiquant une victoire démocrate, s'activent pour obtenir que la Maison Blanche adopte une série de mesures en leur faveur avant le départ de M. Bush.

Sylvain Cypel

Iowa Permits Same-Sex Marriage, for 4 Hours, Anyway

Joshua Lott for The New York Times

Sean Fritz, 24, left, and Timothy McQuillan, 21, sealed their union in a ceremony performed by the Rev. Mark Stringer, right.

By MONICA DAVEY

Published: September 1, 2007 by The New York Times

DES MOINES, Aug. 31 — From towns around the state, places like Cedar Falls, Ames and Cedar Rapids, same-sex couples converged on this city as early as dawn on Friday as word spread that a judge had overturned a state law banning gay marriage.

Enlarge This Image

Joshua Lott for The New York Times

Enlarge This Image

Joshua Lott for The New York Times

Sean Fritz, left, and Timothy McQuillan, awaiting their marriage certificate at the Polk County Clerk’s Office.

“Imagine this — right here in Iowa,” Amanda Duncan said as she and her partner of three years, Aleece Ramirez, filled out their application for a marriage license and put down $35. “Hopefully, this starts a fire that spreads to other places.”

The chance was fleeting. After four hours, Robert B. Hanson, the same county judge who had deemed the ban on same-sex marriages unconstitutional, delayed further granting of licenses until the Iowa Supreme Court decided whether to consider an appeal.

Still, national advocates for same-sex marriage pointed to the developments as significant. An issue that has largely been battled on the coasts in states like Massachusetts and California, they said, has made its way squarely to the more conservative middle.

“There are some people

scratching their heads and saying, Iowa?” said Jon Davidson, the legal director at Lambda Legal, which worked on the case that led to the marriage applications here. “But this shows that there are lesbian and gay people everywhere who would like to get married.”

Opponents of same-sex marriage said they viewed the decision as a rallying cry, a reason that a federal amendment defining marriage is needed and a reason that an amendment to the Iowa Constitution, not just a statute, is needed.

“This is the misguided decision of one person,” Chris Stovall, senior legal counsel for the Alliance Defense Fund, which opposes same-sex marriage, said of Judge Hanson’s ruling on constitutionality. “I don’t think it represents at all what Iowa thinks. People across America and certainly in Iowa, in the heartland, understand that marriage is the union between one man and one woman.”

Massachusetts is the lone state that allows same-sex marriage. A handful of other states, including Vermont, New Jersey and Connecticut, allow same-sex civil unions. A few others, including California, allow other legal partnerships.

Judge Hanson’s ruling on Thursday, and the fallout on Friday, have also raised once more the issue of same-sex marriage among the presidential candidates who devote so much time in this state leading up to its early caucuses.

It is welcome for those candidates firmly opposed to or supportive of same-sex marriage, political experts said Friday, but has created an unwanted and thorny issue for those who have tried to walk a careful line somewhere in between.

“It really is a monkey wrench that sort of is thrown into the process for some of them,” Steffen W. Schmidt, a professor of political science at Iowa State University, said. “It’s potentially more dangerous for the Democrats, where the front-runners have been trying to finesse this issue.”

At least two Republican presidential hopefuls, Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas and Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, swiftly issued statements opposing the judge’s decision.

Mr. Romney called it “another example of an activist court and unelected judges trying to redefine marriage and disregard the will of the people.”

Asked about the ruling, Phil Singer, a spokesman for the campaign of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, spoke of civil unions, not marriages.

“Hillary Clinton believes that gay and lesbian couples should have the same rights and responsibilities as all Americans, and that civil unions are the best way to achieve this goal,” Mr. Singer said. “As president, she will work to extend benefits at the federal level to same-sex couples in committed relationships.”

Here, the brief flurry of applications for marriage licenses was low key. About 20 couples applied before a stay was granted. No protesters appeared. Few passers-by near the Polk County administration building said they were aware of the ruling.

The legal case here began in 2005 when six same-sex couples sued the county recorder, who declined to accept their applications for marriage licenses.

The question now goes to the State Supreme Court.

In the hours before the case was suspended, just one couple, Timothy McQuillan, 21, and Sean Fritz, 24, managed to obtain their license, and also to marry. Trailed by reporters, they raced around Des Moines in search of someone who could officiate at their wedding and found a minister who agreed to conduct the service.

“We had to get married — we’re at that point in our life,” said Mr. Fritz, who said he proposed to Mr. McQuillan in a parking lot after he heard about the ruling on Thursday night.

The men, who live in Ames, met on Facebook more than a year ago, Mr. Fritz said. Whatever the outcome of the legal case, he said, “As far as I’m concerned, I’m married in the state of Iowa.”

John Sarcone, the Polk County attorney, who is representing the county recorder’s office in the case, said the marriage could be considered legitimate. Ultimately, though, it, too, may depend on the decision of a higher court.

Patrick Healy and Michael Cooper contributed reporting from New York.

Clinton Brings Out Husband for Boost

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: July 2, 2007

The New York Times

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- Hillary Rodham Clinton tried to boost her presidential campaign in the leadoff voting state of Iowa on Monday by embarking on a Fourth of July tour accompanied by one of the most popular figures in Democratic politics -- her husband.

Bill Clinton said he is backing his wife because she is the most qualified, not because of any spousal obligation.

''All you have to do is decide who do you think will be the best president,'' he told thousands of voters gathered at twilight on the Iowa State Fairgrounds. ''Here's what I want to say to you: I'd be here tonight if she asked me if we weren't married.''

His wife, a New York senator, said she was ''thrilled to finally find something in politics that I'm doing that my husband didn't do.'' Bill Clinton skipped the Iowa caucuses in 1992 because Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin was running against him.

Normally a spouse's presence on the campaign trail isn't so noteworthy, but so far the Clinton campaign has been using Bill Clinton only sparingly. Monday's rally was the first time they had campaigned together in an early voting state, and he planned to stay at her side through the July 4 holiday.

The former president's visit comes six weeks after an internal campaign memo by a senior staffer suggested she should skip Iowa and invest her resources in other early voting states. Clinton denounced the memo, which called Iowa ''our consistently weakest state,'' and said she would continue to compete vigorously in Iowa.

Clinton leads the Democratic field in most polls, but she has yet to break out from rival John Edwards in Iowa, which is scheduled to hold the nation's first presidential caucus on Jan. 14.

After the Clintons' trip was announced, Democratic rival Barack Obama said he would be visiting the state with his wife and daughters in a dueling family holiday.

Obama was to begin Tuesday, while the Clintons began Monday night with a rally made for Iowa television, surrounded by hay bails stuck with little American flags and thousands of flag-waving supporters.

Bringing out Bill Clinton is not without risks. He tried not to overshadow his wife at the fairgrounds, keeping his remarks to an uncharacteristically brief 8 1/2 minutes. Republicans used the joint appearance to remind voters of their personal problems.

''After Bill Clinton tarnished the name of the president of the United States, the Republican Party restored hope, respect and morality within the Oval Office by bringing positive ideas and conservative values back to the White House,'' the Iowa Republican Party said in an e-mail sent to reporters. ''Neither Iowans nor the rest of the country need to witness another Clinton catastrophe.''

Bill Clinton is especially beloved by Democrats who will decide the nomination. According to a CBS News poll, 79 percent of Democrats view Bill Clinton favorably, compared to two-thirds who said they have a favorable view of his wife.

Elementary school principal Clark Wicks of Perry, Iowa, said he thinks of Bill Clinton as a strong president who did a lot of good for the country.

''He made a lot of poor choices on the side,'' Wicks said, sitting with his wife under a shade tree before the event started. ''But, boy, not as many as our current president on the economy, the war, education.''

Bill Clinton only joined his wife publicly once before since she announced her candidacy -- during a commemoration of the civil rights march in Selma, Ala., where Obama, the only black candidate in the race, threatened to overshadow her.

Clinton got another boost from an important spouse among Iowa Democrats -- Ruth Harkin, the wife of the senator, announced she would back her and introduced them at the fairgrounds. Ruth Harkin was president of the Overseas Private Investment Corp. in the Clinton administration. Her husband has said he will remain neutral.